Sunlit Water

December 8, 2007

Marty Drops Out

Filed under: Politics — by teofilo @ 3:05 pm

Now here‘s some good news.  Udall would most likely have won the primary anyway, but a hard-fought Democratic primary is the last thing we need right now, and this gives him more time to focus on the general (where his opponent will almost certainly be Heather Wilson).

Domenici’s retirement has resulted in a major shakeup of New Mexico congressional politics, since all three of the state’s representatives are running for his seat, freeing up their current seats.  Udall’s seat is a virtual lock for the Democrats, while Wilson’s seat is a very good pickup opportunity; the first district is very close to a 50-50 split between the parties, and Wilson has only been able to pull off several very close victories by a combination of her considerable political skills and the weak opponents the Democrats have thrown at her.  Now that she’s out, though, there aren’t any other Republicans with anything like her popularity or savvy and the GOP’s general unpopularity these days gives the Democrats a good shot at taking the seat.  Pearce’s seat, on the other hand, will be easy for the Republicans to hold on to.  The southern part of the state is very close to Texas both physically and politically.

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9 Comments »

  1. CD1 isn’t 50/50 in party affiliation, it’s more like 46/35.

    Comment by Mike Schneider — December 13, 2007 @ 9:41 pm |Reply

  2. Let’s try that again and see if I can post anything past the first line.

    CD1 isn’t 50/50 in party affiliation, it’s more like 46/35.

    Comment by Mike Schneider — December 13, 2007 @ 9:43 pm |Reply

  3. crap. Dunno what’s not working.

    Comment by Anonymous — December 13, 2007 @ 9:44 pm |Reply

  4. What are you trying to add?

    Comment by teofilo — December 13, 2007 @ 10:27 pm |Reply

  5. I had a little paragraph with the actual numbers and a link to the source of the info, to support the topic sentence. Doesn’t matter. They’re from the Secretary of State’s web site.

    Comment by Mike Schneider — December 14, 2007 @ 9:07 am |Reply

  6. Here‘s the main stats page. It turns out the second district stats are a lot like the first district ones, which surprises me but is probably attributable largely to vestigial Texan membership in the Democratic Party. The third district has a much more pronounced Democratic advantage.

    Comment by teofilo — December 14, 2007 @ 9:15 am |Reply

  7. The county stats are interesting too.

    Comment by teofilo — December 14, 2007 @ 9:19 am |Reply

  8. Thanks, that’s the page I was trying to link. Las Cruces is the big gorilla in CD 2. It’s got students, old line Hispanics, and poor folks – natural Democratic contingents. Balanced (or overbalanced) by Hobbs, Roswell et al. Again, problem getting the Democrats to get out and vote Democratic, I think. Certainly the GOTV efforts I’ve seen here have been absolutely terrible. CD 3 has both the Santa Fe liberal contingent and a large native American segment, which are also natural Democratic constituencies and perhaps better organized to show up and vote. I’m thinking that paragraph breaks are taken as end-of-comment signals.

    Comment by Mike Schneider — December 14, 2007 @ 9:27 am |Reply

  9. Yes, the county numbers also. bernalillo county idn’t get out the vote for Kerry. I had thought that this old web page had been erased, but I guess not: http://users.hubwest.com/msch/dpbc/ngotv.html

    Comment by mike Schneider — December 14, 2007 @ 9:30 am |Reply


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